Nate Silver's 2012 presidential forecast

By on November 3, 2011

In a New York Times Magazine cover story, Nate Silver lays handicaps the 2012 race:

CASE STUDY NO. 1: ROMNEY AND STAGNANT ECONOMY
Obama approval rating in November 2011: 43%
G.D.P. growth in 2012: 0%
Probability of winning the popular vote:

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