Mitt Romney continues to lead the Florida Republican presidential primary. Romney leads with 43%, followed by Newt Gingrich with 31%, Rick Santorum with 13%, and Ron Paul with 9%, according to the final ARG survey of Florida.
In a similar survey conducted January 27-28, 2012, Romney was at 43% and Gingrich was at 32%.
A total of 36% of Republican primary voters say that they have already voted by absentee ballot or in early voting. Of this group of voters, Romney leads with 51%, followed by Gingrich with 29%, Santorum with 12%, and Paul with 8%. Among the 64% of the remaining likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads with 39%, followed by Gingrich with 32%, Santorum with 14%, and Paul with 10%.
Based on the votes already cast through absentee ballots and early voting and assuming Romney holds his vote, Gingrich would need to receive 51% of the votes cast on election day to tie Romney at 43%. That represents all of the undecided vote plus Ron Paul’s expected vote on election day or 71% of Santorum’s expected vote on election day.