FiveThirtyEight forecast: Bill Nelson a 65% chance favorite to win re-election


Nate Silver updated his Senate forecast and concludes that Democrat Bill Nelson has a 65% chance favorite to win re-election. Conversely, the GOP has a 35% chance of winning, regardless of whether whom is the nominee.

Nationally, “the most likely outcome” is Republicans winning 50 seats, Democrats 49, and Angus King (I) the seat in Maine. Under those circumstances, the Democrats would retain control of the Senate if King caucused with them and President Obama won re-election, making Vice President Biden the tiebreaking vote. Otherwise, Republicans would control the chamber.

However, the range in the forecast is from Democrats winning 55 seats to Republicans winning 56 seats.



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Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.