- Tampa Bay’s Campaign Weekender for July 25-28
- Breaking: Associated Industries of Florida says it really likes Rick Scott!
- After railing against super PACs, Obama embraces secretive elements of unlimited political fundraising
- Obama aides says impeachment threat taken seriously
- U.S. Rep. David Jolly making it clear he is not endorsing Peter Nehr in county commission race
- 100 days before election, Charlie Crist to hold “Weekend of Action”
FiveThirtyEight forecast: Bill Nelson a 65% chance favorite to win re-election
Nate Silver updated his Senate forecast and concludes that Democrat Bill Nelson has a 65% chance favorite to win re-election. Conversely, the GOP has a 35% chance of winning, regardless of whether whom is the nominee.
Nationally, “the most likely outcome” is Republicans winning 50 seats, Democrats 49, and Angus King (I) the seat in Maine. Under those circumstances, the Democrats would retain control of the Senate if King caucused with them and President Obama won re-election, making Vice President Biden the tiebreaking vote. Otherwise, Republicans would control the chamber.
However, the range in the forecast is from Democrats winning 55 seats to Republicans winning 56 seats.