Instant analysis: Key takeaways from today’s polls showing Obama leading Florida
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 45 – 41 percent. Going inside the crosstabs of the poll, here are some instant key takeaways.
1. The. Bain. Attacks. Are. Working. In a campaign speech in Tampa, the President said: “[W]e do not need an outsourcing pioneer in the Oval Office.” This line of attack appears to be working as the only income demographic Romney is leading Obama is among those making annually more than $100,000. Otherwise, Obama is crushing Romney. Obama is leading Romney among those making annually $30,000 to $50,000 by 17 points.
2. On the heels of the President’s order that will prevent the deportation of some younger illegal immigrants, Obama already holds a big lead among Hispanic voters (56 – 32 percent). That lead should only expand as the benefits of the President’s order are realized.
3. It’s increasingly clear that the controversial May 23 poll from Quinnipiac showing a six-point lead for Romney was off-kilter. The last five polls have gone Obama +4, Obama +4, Romney +6 , Romney +1, Obama +7. Update: Steve Schale tweets: Only 2 numbers matter @SaintPetersblog – 32.5 million votes since 1992. 57,000 separate Rs & Ds. Polls will bounce, but Fla will be Fla.
4. The WSJ/NBC poll shows Obama with a 50 – 42 percent lead in battleground states, such as Florida. In these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped; 18 percent say what they’ve seen and heard about Romney’s business record gives them a more positive opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33 percent who say it’s more negative. That’s compared to the national 23-to-28 percent margin on this question.
5. Miscellany, via James Hohmann, from the WSJ/NBC: Solyndra is nearly as well-known as Bain Capital in the NBC/WSJ poll. Eight percent have a positive view of Romney’s company, compared to 20 percent who see it negatively. Only two percent view Solyndra positively. 20 percent view the failed, stimulus-funded company negatively.