[M]any of the states with high-profile conservative governors vowing to stand athwart the ACA’s progress, by refusing to expand their Medicaid programs and erecting hurdles to establishing insurance marketplaces, would stand to gain the most from successful implementation of the law.
The Hill lists seven Democratic governors as undecided and one as leaning against expansion. In most of these cases, it’s not hard to see what’s going on. Take Missouri’s Jay Nixon, the one who’s leaning against. Nixon is a first governor of a red state, one that John McCain managed to (barely) carry against the national Democratic tide of 2008. Presumably, Obama will fare worse in the Show Me State this fall, and Nixon will be seeking reelection on the Democratic ticket with him. So Nixon really has no incentive to embrace the expansion now.
Why conservative states should consider expansion:
Most southern states would see their adult uninsured populations drop by about 50 percent because of the expansions — notably higher than many northeastern states that already have either generous Medicaid provisions or, in the case of Massachusetts, an existing universal health care law. Depending on how aggressively the expansion were implemented, South Carolina would likely see a 56.4 – 76.2 percent reduction in uninsured adults. In Louisiana, the range is 50.7 – 74.8 percent.