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It's 2000 all over again! In must-read post, Nate Silver forecasting another presidential recount in Florida

By on July 14, 2012

It’s 2000 all over again.

In a must-read post for his FiveThirtyEight blog, which derives its name from the infamous recount of Florida’s presidential vote, New York Times uber blogger Nate Silver is forecasting another razor-thin result for the Sunshine State:

“Our model shows Florida as close as can be. It projects the Nov. 6 result as Mr. Obama 49.5 percent, Mr. Romney 49.4 percent — an outcome that would be close enough to trigger another recount.”

“Mr. Obama has led in the majority of Florida polls recently — five of seven since June 1. The model hedges against these polls a bit because Florida is normally a bit Republican-leaning and since its economy is doing quite poorly. That’s how it gets a tie there.”

“Still, Mr. Obama’s polling in Florida seems to have improved by a percentage point or so since a couple of months ago — at a time when national polls have generally been quite steady. That has brought it a bit closer to the national average and increased its ranking on our list of tipping point states that are most likely to decide the election.”

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