It's 2000 all over again! In must-read post, Nate Silver forecasting another presidential recount in Florida


It’s 2000 all over again.

In a must-read post for his FiveThirtyEight blog, which derives its name from the infamous recount of Florida’s presidential vote, New York Times uber blogger Nate Silver is forecasting another razor-thin result for the Sunshine State:

“Our model shows Florida as close as can be. It projects the Nov. 6 result as Mr. Obama 49.5 percent, Mr. Romney 49.4 percent — an outcome that would be close enough to trigger another recount.”

“Mr. Obama has led in the majority of Florida polls recently — five of seven since June 1. The model hedges against these polls a bit because Florida is normally a bit Republican-leaning and since its economy is doing quite poorly. That’s how it gets a tie there.”

“Still, Mr. Obama’s polling in Florida seems to have improved by a percentage point or so since a couple of months ago — at a time when national polls have generally been quite steady. That has brought it a bit closer to the national average and increased its ranking on our list of tipping point states that are most likely to decide the election.”



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Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.