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PPP poll of Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47%

By on September 4, 2012

PPP’s newest Florida poll, conducted completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last poll of the state five weeks ago.

The Republican convention being held in Tampa appears to have been a wash. 33% of voters say it made them more likely to vote for Republicans, 33% said it made them less likely to vote for Republicans, and 34% said it didn’t make a difference to them either way.

Romney did see a slight bump in his favorability numbers. 49% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. That +2 spread is up a net 5 points from late July when his breakdown was 46/49.

The rest of the speakers at the convention seem to have been more of a hit with voters. Condoleezza Rice’s numbers in particular stand out. 66% of voters see her favorably to 22% with a negative opinion. That’s up a net 13 points from our last poll when she was already pretty darn popular at 59/28. Even with Democrats Rice comes in at 47/36. Another star from the convention is Ann Romney. 56% of voters give her good marks to 22% with an unfavorable opinion and she comes close to breaking even with Democrats at 32/39.

Clint Eastwood’s speech may have drawn more attention than anything else that happened at the convention and it didn’t go over particularly well with voters. 36% say they have a favorable opinion of his remarks to 41% with a negative opinion. While Eastwood’s speech didn’t do much to help Romney it doesn’t seem to have hurt his own reputation either. 72% of Floridians have a favorable opinion of him to 11% with a negative one and even with Democrats the spread is 58/20. Those are certainly numbers any politician would die for.

The biggest winner of the convention on the Republican side may have been Marco Rubio. He now has a 51% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him. Those are the best numbers PPP has found for him since he took office. He is pretty universally beloved by GOP voters at 85/11 and even with Democrats he has a 26% approval rating, more crossover support than we usually find for folks these days.

Everyone else who spoke in the 10 PM hour at the convention has better favorability numbers than Mitt Romney. Besides those already mentioned Susana Martinez has a +19 spread at 35/16, Chris Christie has a +9 spread at 41/32, and Paul Ryan has a +7 spread at 47/40.

Obama continues to have his modest lead in Florida because he’s up 51-39 with independents, 63-33 with non-white voters, and 54-40 with voters under 45. Romney’s up 54-42 with whites and 53-44 with folks over 45 but he would need bigger margins with those groups to lead in the state overall.

Other notes from Florida:

-One reason Romney may not get much, if any, of a convention bounce is simply that people don’t think he’s a very good speaker. 58% in Florida say Obama is a better public speaker to 32% for Romney.

-49% of Florida voters think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns to 41% who think he should not.

-Florida voters oppose the Ryan Plan 44/37 but given the lack of change in the race since Ryan’s selection as Romney’s running mate and the strong advantage the Republican ticket has with seniors that may not be having too much of an impact.

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