For Obama, not a convention bump, but an ad bump


During both the Democratic and Republican conventions, ads favoring Obama dominated the airwaves in numerous markets, including key swing states such as Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia. This advantage may help to explain why Obama’s ‘convention bounce’ was larger than Romney’s.

John Sides, who created the above chart, is intrigued:

What makes this hypothesis plausible is that imbalances in advertising spending are often necessary for advertising to influence the polls. If the candidates are at parity, then the two sides’ spending may simply cancel each other out. And, as some new research suggests, these imbalances may be more prevalent in presidential campaigns than previously thought. Certainly a lack of complete parity has been the norm in each of the past several months.

But Obama supporters should not get too excited. The effects of ads also decay quickly. Any advantage over these past several months, or even these past two weeks, should be less important than an advantage in late October.

H/t to The Daily Dish.



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Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.