AP analysis, Rand survey confirm Obama’s polling lead


If the election were held today, an Associated Press analysis shows Obama would win at least 271 electoral votes, with Ohio and Iowa now among the states he would carry.

“To overtake Obama, Romney would need to quickly gain the upper hand in nearly all of the nine states where he and Obama are competing hardest.”

Additionally, the latest Rand survey — an experimental polling method which uses the same single panel of voters over several months — confirms what nearly every other traditional poll has found: President Obama and Romney were running neck and neck until the Democratic convention and ever since then, Obama has been rising and Romney falling in the poll.

Obama now holds a seven point lead in the Rand survey over Romney, 50% to 43%.

For comparison, the Gallup tracking poll shows Obama leading by six points, 50% to 44%, while the Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Obama leading by five points, 47% to 42%.