Nate Silver: Romney’s debate gains show signs of staying


Mitt Romney continues to surge in Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight forecast, and Friday may have featured his best set of polls all year.

… Fifteen polls were released on Friday that provided a comparison with another survey conducted between the Democratic convention and last week’s debate in Denver. Mr. Romney gained an average of 4.6 percentage points in these surveys. … That is actually a bit larger than we were showing earlier in the week, when the same exercise put Mr. Romney’s postdebate bounce more in the range of three or four percentage points.

It is not clear whether Romney is still gaining ground — or whether he benefited from a couple of outlying results. The median change in the polls, which will be less sensitive to potential outliers, was a three-point gain for Mr. Romney, more like earlier in the week.

But unlike earlier, Romney is now seeing some of his best results in swing state polls. Six of the seven polls published on Friday from such states had him ahead.