New poll shows Neil Brickfield in fight of his political life; incumbent down 4 points to Janet Long


As a political consultant, Neil Brickfield has worked on dozens of close, competitive campaigns. Surely, many of them have gone down to the wire, decided on Election Day by voters making their decision at the last minute. But has Brickfield ever found himself in the situation he currently faces?

The incumbent Republican is currently down 3.5% among “active” voters (those who have voted at least once during the last four years) and 6.6% among registered voters to Democrat challenger Janet Long, according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls.

These numbers are a dramatic shift from the last round of polling data which showed Brickfield leading Long by one point. Since that time, the Tampa Bay Times has published several articles highlighting Brickfield’s controversial vote to end putting fluoride in the county’s water supply. Over the weekend, the Times wholeheartedly endorsed Long.

In the other Pinellas County Commission race on the ballot, Democrat Charlie Justice leads incumbent Republican Nancy Bostock 47.7% to 43.1% among “active” voters and 45.8% to 43.4% among registered voters.

As for the veracity of St. Pete Polls data, I wrote this analysis two months ago about its numbers vs. actual results and determined, “Its results in the most important races outweigh its askew numbers in down-ballot campaigns.