Mark Blumenthal checks in on various swing states:
New polls in both states over the past week have narrowed the estimated margins in Ohio and Iowa slightly over what the model was showing on Oct. 16 (the day of the second presidential debate). Nevertheless, the model now indicates 91 percent and 94 percent confidence that Obama would lead in Iowa and Ohio, respectively, if all votes were cast today.
Nate Cohn examines Obama’s advantage in Ohio:
Over the last four years, Obama’s support among white voters has fallen to historically low levels nationally, predictably rejiggering the battleground states along racial lines. But the wave has completely missed Ohio, where Obama continues to hold a slight lead in a traditionally Republican, white working class state that only voted for him by 4 points in 2008. Other than Florida, Obama couldn’t have chosen a better state to defy demographic expectations than Ohio, and at the moment, it’s responsible for his clear advantage in the Electoral College.
Eliza Shapiro wonders whether Ohio will follow on Florida’s footsteps:
And so Ohio is hurriedly preparing its voting apparatus for the worst-case scenario: another Florida 2000. “It’s hard to imagine that anything could be as bad as Florida,” says Rick Hasen, the author of The Voting Wars: Florida 2000 to the Next Election Meltdown. But if the election comes down to margin of 10,000 or fewer votes, [Dan Tokaji, a professor of election law at Ohio State University’s Moritz School of Law] says, “all the warts in Ohio’s system will be revealed for all the world to see.”
Via The Daily Dish.