Check out Michael Barone’s rather amazing forecast. Michael knows every inch of every district in a way few others do; he’s deeply knowledgeable about the electoral process, and, his latest column predicts a Romney landslide:
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223.
He gives Ohio to Romney on the following grounds:
Many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Andrew Sullivan puts a lot of credence in Barone.
I deeply respect Michael’s expertise and integrity (unlike the rabid propagandist Hinderaker), so this is really a fascinating test case. I suspect it will be very tight nationally, and I try not to give predictions. But if Romney gets a landslide in the electoral college, many of us will have to reassess our entire understanding of America, politics and polls. And if Obama wins, Michael will presumably acknowledge where and how he was so, so wrong. There might even be a crack in the cognitive dissonance and epistemic closure across the right. I mean: the central issue in this campaign is Benghazi, remember?