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David Jolly begins CD 13 general election with four point lead over Alex Sink

By on January 16, 2014
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David Jolly’s remarkable, if not inexplicable, march to Congress continues unabated as the Republican nominee in the special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional District begins the general election with a four point lead over Democrat Alex Sink.

Jolly, a virtual unknown just four months ago, leads Sink, who served as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, 47 to 43 percent, according to a survey conducted by St. Pete Polls and commissioned by this blog. Libertarian Lucas Overby takes 4 percent of the vote, while undecided voters make up 6 percent of the responses.

Fueling Jolly’s lead are his favorability numbers. Voters in this Pinellas seat hold a 46 to 35 percent favorable rating of Jolly, while Sink is a mixed bag at 48 to 43 percent favorable.

Jolly’s edge over Sink is accompanied by relatively moderate survey results about the Affordable Care Act. Voters in the 13th Congressional District are split about whether Obamacare should be left alone (34 percent), repealed without a replacement (36 percent), or repealed with a replacement (27 percent). 

Regardless of voters’ positions on Obamacare, 68 percent say that where the candidates stand on Obamacare will influence their vote.

Asked about immigration, CD 13 voters were of two minds, with 32 percent supporting deportation and 49 percent favoring a path to citizenship. 

With that kind of result — half the district supporting the moderate idea of a path to citizenship — it’s interesting that Jolly is leading Sink.  Yes, there were more Republican respondents than Democrats, but pollster Matt Florell says that reflects the fact that GOP voters in CD 13 were more active in 2010 and 2012.

Only voters who said they were planning to vote in March were included in the results. The poll had 1,278 respondents and has a margin of error of +/- 2.7%. 

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